The Tennessee Volunteers Might Win The NCAA National Championship: Here's How

March Madness is finally upon us. It's time to fill out dozens of brackets until you land on that perfect one that will get busted within hours if not minutes. For another 20 hours or so, we'll talk ourselves into all manner of things leading up the first tip. On the eve of such a momentous occasion, I might as well join in on the fun. Therefore I say to you, I've convinced myself that the Tennessee Vols have all the tools to make a deep run and possibly win the NCAA National Championship.

Show me one team in the nation that's been perfect. I would say I'll wait but I won't because that team doesn't exist. No rational fan has expected that from the Vols this season. There were some slips along the way, sure. Who cares, homies? It's March, we start over with a clean slate and hope to put together our best work yet. 

In a perfect world, all the stars align and we get hot at the perfect time in March to make a run, but that's gonna take some self-reflection. Recognizing and addressing weaknesses is the sign of a strong program and a strong person; I am that strong person, and I suspect Rick Barnes has these men working every day to minimize the chinks in the armor.

THE BAD:

• As everyone knows, losing Zakai Zeigler to a knee injury is debilitating. He was playing 28.7 minutes per game and averaging the second most points on the team with 10.7 ppg. More damaging is the loss of his ability to distribute the ball - we lose 5+ assists a game and elite point guard play with him sidelined. Next man up mentality, but this one hurt. 
• Zeigler is also the best free throw shooter on the team. There's nothing that can kill you more than missing free throws in the tournament when it matters most and he was all but automatic at the line.
• February in general sucked pretty hard. Ziegler's injury on the 28th put a bow on a mostly shitty month of basketball for the Vols as they stacked up losses to Florida, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Kentucky, and Texas A&M during that stretch. I like to think some of it was fatigue but there were some lows in there. 
• Offensively, this team has its moments, but overall KenPom has them ranked 48th in adjusted offensive efficiency (defined as points scored per 100 possessions). We've been a defensive team all year, this much has been known. Still, this rating is a little bit of an outlier for a team ranked as highly as they are on KenPom's list and we can't rely solely on our defense if we're in a drought on the offensive side. 

TOP 3 WORST LOSSES:

This team had its fair share of Jekyll & Hyde-type play and for them to make a run we'll need to see "the good Vols" for a few consecutive games. These are a few of the "bad Vols" games that stick out: 

1. Vanderbilt (2/8/23) - This game, coming off a win over Auburn, jumpstarted an abysmal month for the Vols as they more or less got gashed defensively at home by the little brother program. Despite shooting 46.7% from the field and trading licks most of the game, we were outgunned and couldn't get a stop, thus Vanderbilt was able to pull off the 1 point victory. Somehow, against all odds, the Vols were only able to amass 3 total free throws in this game, which is inexcusable on multiple levels. Vanderbilt hit a few timely 3's and that was that, it was as ugly a loss as I can remember and even though we battled, we deserved this one. 
2. Kentucky, both times (1/14 and 2/18/23) - Again, a glaring lack of ability to draw fouls (or have fouls called) in these two contests resulted in 24 combined free throw attempts with just 11 of them made for the Vols. Kentucky's length and raw athleticism stifled the offense and Oscar Tshiebwe regained his Player of the Year form from last year in these games going for 15 pts/13 reb then 16 pts. The result was a pathetic 3-21 / 6-27 3PT performance, respectively and two stinkers. How the Vols went 4-14 from the free throw line in February's matchup is beyond me - someone very clearly tampered with the rims and our free throws were sabotaged. The January loss felt like a stumble, but the February loss confirmed that they owned our butts in 2022-23.
• In these games, the FT discrepancy was very, very real. Again, whether that's an issue of the referees hating the Vols or the more realistic lack of ability to drive the basketball and draw contact, it was a lopsided affair from the charity stripe. Kentucky was 22-25 on FT's in January and 23/35 (!!!) in February. By my count that's a difference of 34 points just at the free throw line in these two games. Those are some numbers that make a vast difference in the outcome of games but that's also on us to fix it and find ways around it.
3. Florida (2/1/23) - The Vols put together their second worst offensive performance of the season against Florida where the Vols shot 20% from 3PT and 27.9% from the field, a rotten 19 of 68 shots made. We let the Gators go 44% from the field and 35% from 3PT, enough to beat a severely lethargic day on offense. It was just a pure loss, our defense broke down, and they scored more times than we did. Again, no one expected perfection but this was an ultimate "play down to your competition" display and an embarrassing loss to a garbage Florida team. Our performance was uninspired and Florida got easily their best win of the year (hang the banner, losers). 

Dishonorable Mention: I've decided to leave the Colorado loss off this list. As bad as it was, it was only the second game of the year. 

Now that that's out of the way, let's move on to brighter topics.

THE GOOD:

• As suspect as their offense can be at times, the Vols are #2 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. By no means is this the gospel to success and tournament wins, everything is situational, but it's a very solid indicator that our defense is truly elite and on another level. This singular factor is what's enabled us to compete with literally anybody that's been thrown at us, all season long. 
• The Vols notched some downright sexy regular season wins. Obviously none of this matters in March, but it's a subtle reminder that we can hang with the big dogs. 
• It's not always easy to tell in December/January, but some notable wins over solid (future tournament) teams were as follows: Southern Cal, Kansas, Maryland, Texas, Auburn (ugly win), and of course, Alabama. While some of the bad losses are there, we also beat some of the best college basketball has to offer and played with the likes of Arizona, including a few national title favorites. I think the takeaway is that, if we're mostly clicking, we can play with just about anybody. 
• Lots of these wins were when Zeigler was on the floor, so that obviously plays a part, but I like to believe there are a few guys that can/will step up and fill the void that was left when he got injured. 

TOP 3  4 BEST WINS:

1. USC/Texas (tie) - 
1. The USC (11/24/22) game was early on in the season, but that's a pretty strong squad and we held them to just 5 three pointers in that contest. It wasn't our finest game on offense, but they capitalized at the free throw line going 22-26. It was a grind-it-out win and a good confidence booster early.  
2. Texas (1/28/23) was just a complete, hard-fought game against a worthy opponent. Offensively we were efficient, shooting 55.6% and 31.6% from 3PT. This was another example of our defense making a difference with Texas shooting 44% and 29% from 3PT. This was a version of "the good Vols" and Olivier Nkamhoua went for 27 in this one. It showed us that if we can have him playing at that level of confidence, he's capable of good things and it makes our offensive scheme that much easier.
2. Auburn (2/4/23) - This was one of the worst offensive games of our season and our lowest points output at 46. The Vols posted 27% FG and hilariously went 2-21 from 3PT and still won the basketball game, which seems impossible. For whatever it's worth, the tantalizing Vols D held Auburn to 3-27 from 3PT so it was brutal on both sides. This was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad win... but a win nonetheless, and it proved that this team can be gritty and win ugly if needed. 
3. Alabama (2/15/23) - Of course beating the #1 team in the nation was nice. But sandwiching this win in between two bookend losses on either side was even nicer, in hindsight. We were skidding and folks were losing confidence, myself included. I wasn't sure where this team was headed and this win brought me back up for air. It once again showed that this team is capable of playing with, and beating, anyone in the nation. Brandon Miller, the National Player of the Year/expert murder accomplice was shot down and held to just 15 points, a job well executed by the Vols to put the silencer on him. It wasn't the most exceptional game offensively for us (offensive outbursts aren't really the blueprint of this team), but our defense once again made a difference holding 'Bama to 59 points on 48 FG attempts. 
4. Edited: How in the living shit could I forget about Kansas in November? 41% FG and 44% from 3 was enough to take down the future 1 seed in the Battle 4 Atlantis. In combination with a potent offensive attack, the defense kept Kansas in check to the tune of 32% FG and only 5 made three pointers in this one. Another example of "good Vols" where the defense is feisty and the offense fills it up. While this was relatively early, it was a resumé win for the Vols and one that showed us, again, that they are able to go toe-to-toe with anyone. 

Honorable Mention: We didn't win, we lost by 5, but we played Arizona down to the wire. Free throws attempts in that game? 10 for the Vols, 27 for the Mildcats. Shocker, I know! 

 

If I picked up on two things from watching this team play all season it's that they can play with anybody, but they can also play down to their competition in a big way. 

THE FORMULA:

It's clear at this point that our identity as a team isn't one of explosive offensive performances. There are times where everything's falling, and that's fine. Our leg to lean on is our elite defense. Here's what I hope we see:

• Lean on your seniors, especially Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James. These guys have been here before and will be important factors should the Vols make a run. Setting the pace with 12.7 and 10.1 ppg, these two are experienced and need to lead by example as points scorers and facilitators early and often. 
• Continued good work from Olivier Nkamhoua would be an added bonus. He's been a tad spotty at times but still averages over 10 ppg, and we saw what he's capable of against Texas. Now's the time to empty the tank.
• Whole-hog production from Tyreke Key. A spot-up shooter by trade, he's shown flashes of that ability to pull from virtually anywhere. I'd like to see him be assertive and become the threat he was brought in to be. 
•  Get to/level the playing field at the free throw line. 
• This has to be a point of emphasis for us. It probably goes without saying for every team to win the battle at the free throw line, but most of our really bad spots have come when we are getting outpaced at the free throw line and settling for mostly perimeter shots. If we're being purposeful in penetrating and drawing some fouls, that softens it up for Santi/JJJ/Key to find themselves with better looks and that's when our offense is at its most fruitful. 
• We can't afford to put ourselves at a free throw deficit on the defensive side of the ball. Make smart plays and keep your feet on the ground. Even though the rule exists, college referees stink and get panicked more often than not. 9 times out of 10 if someone is in the air contesting a shot, they're going to call a foul even if your arms are straight up. 
• Julian Phillips: True breakout.
• Now would be a perfect time for the former 5-star recruit to show the college basketball world why he was the #15 player in the nation and impose his will. I was made to believe that he's capable of taking a game over and I want to see that take place very much. 
• Jamai Mashack: Take the next step.
• Another younger guy that was forced into a prominent role, Mashack is an elite defender with speed. If he can get to double digit points in this tournament I think the Vols have a great chance at going deep. 

Let's all settle in and enjoy ourselves for rapid-fire college basketball action and here's to the Vols in the Final Four!