FANTASY FOOTBALL BOYS DOES FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: Your Top 30 Quarterbacks for 2023
Now that the mandatory minicamps are over, I think now's as good a time as any to release my annual Fantasy Football rankings.
I know it's early, but as the top fantasy football blog on the world wide web it's probably best to get these out there and adjust them as the offseason evolves.
This way you rabid skanks can start getting your preliminary blueprints together and have all ducks in a row come draft day. Here are my rankings (against the Expert Consensus Rankings) and my rationale behind them. I only did the top 30 because anything past that really doesn't matter for fantasy purposes and nobody is drafting Will Levis anyway.
1. Patrick Mahomes (ECR: 1) -
2. Josh Allen (ECR: 2) -
3. Jalen Hurts (ECR: 3) -
Clax Note: It's impossible to rank these top 3 any other way, in my opinion, unless Hurts does it all over again this year (and then some). It's the cool and edgy thing right now to have Hurts ranked as the fantasy QB1 and lots of "prominent" fantasy "outlets" have him right there at the top. Can we just relax? Hurts was still around 30-40 fantasy points behind Allen and Mahomes last year, respectively, and he is working with a new offensive coordinator for 2023. This isn't a knock - He's obviously an assassin, but he's got a ways to go if he wants to wrestle the top spot away from Mahomes.
I'll admit that it does feel like last year was the first time we've seen Hurts fully start to unlock everything, which is a scary thought if true. In 2022, he flexed improved efficiency as a passer, minimized his INTs, and he's more than capable of 10+ rushing TDs every year. If he continues to improve and build on that, we could be having a different conversation next year. Teams tend to discourage their franchise QBs from running as their careers go on, so we'll see if the running stays a big part of his game. Still, no slouch at #3 but the other two ahead of him have done it consistently for 4-5 years now.
4. Trevor Lawrence (ECR: 8) +4
5. Lamar Jackson (ECR: 4) -1
6. Joe Burrow (ECR: 5) -1
7. Justin Fields (ECR: 6) -1
Clax Note: Wow, look at Trevor Lawrence and his handsome hair leapfrogging everyone to jump to 4. It's actually alarming what one year away from the evils of Urban Meyer did for him, and I believe we see another rise in his production this year. Not to detract from any of the names that dropped a slot, I think they'll all produce on a big level. I just think we see Trevor Lawrence closer to 2021 Herbert numbers - 5,000 yards and 30 passing TDs - this season in what's essentially his second *real* year of pro football. Christian Kirk showed he's a legit WR1 last year and Calvin Ridley's return adds another threat to the mix.
Don't forget, Lawrence can run a little, too (5 rushing TDs in 2022).
9. Daniel Jones (ECR: 12) +3
10. Aaron Rodgers (ECR: 15) +5
11. Dak Prescott (ECR: 9) -2
12. Deshaun Watson (ECR: 10) -2
13. Geno Smith (ECR: 14) -1
Clax Note: Daniel Jones might seem like a bit of a reach in the top-10 to the untrained eye, but in his first season under Daboll he limited mistakes in the air and quietly amassed 7 rushing TDs en route to a solid 4,000 total yards/22 TDs under a new regime (with very limited talent around him). He's a sneaky good runner disguised in a dorky nerd's body but he adds a stud TE in Darren Waller this year and the fantasy production should be there.
Aaron Rodgers is admittedly a risk, but hear me out. He's a year removed from a QB6 season and I don't think one down year is enough to rule him out right yet. Besides, he was only QB13 last year in one of the worst seasons of his career. Now, as a Jet, he's reinvigorated and surrounded by legit young talent around him with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, to name a few. (UPDATE: The recent addition of Dalvin Cook should only further bolster the RB room and make his job that much easier.) It's been a while since Rodgers has seemed happy to be playing football. From the sound of it, life is good for Rodgers as a Jet, and happy Rodgers can still sling it to the tune of a top-10 fantasy season, so long as he (and his offensive line) stays healthy.
14. Tua Tagovailoa (ECR: 11) -3
Clax Note: I like Mike McDaniels and I think he's quirky/smart/good for Tua, but is playing football good for Tua? I have to think one more concussion and a doctor intervenes to prevent him from permanently turning his brain into a bowl of jello at the age of 25. His glass skull scares me, otherwise he'd be higher because Tyreek/Waddle is possibly the best 1-2 punch in the league.
15. Russell Wilson (ECR: 17) +2
Clax Note: Less weirdo Subway sandwiches and more intercourse/slalom skiing workouts this offseason has Russ looking slim and ready to have a bounce back season. Remember how bad he was most of last year? Literally the worst season of his career. He was still QB16 and all leaks from camp signify that he's looked much better. Throw Sean Payton in the mix and I find it hard to believe he doesn't bounce back at least a little for a top-15ish fantasy season.
16. Kirk Cousins (ECR: 13) -3
17. Jared Goff (ECR: 16) -1
Clax Note: BOOOORING.
If you're drafting any of these guys in a 10-12 team league, seek help. It doesn't get any more bland than Cousins and Goff, but they'll get you consistent middling numbers if you're desperate. If they're on your team for anything more than a BYE week placeholder or you're decimated by injuries, you've failed. They're truly middle of the road, aging starters that will average 15 points a game at best but they're safe.
18. Jordan Love (ECR: 21) +3
19. Kenny Pickett (ECR: 22) +3
20. Bryce Young (ECR: 24) +4
21. Anthony Richardson (ECR: 18) -3
22. CJ Stroud (ECR: 25) +3
23. Matthew Stafford (ECR: 19) -4
24. Derek Carr (ECR: 20) -4
25. Kyler Murray (ECR: 23) -2
Clax Note: This group is chaotic and it could go a couple different directions. If you couldn't tell, I'm all the way in on this year's class of rookie QBs. I've strategically placed all the rookies all together, higher than their preseason ECR ranking because if I do hit on one, I'll be able to say that I knew it all along. There are some that are WAY higher on Anthony Richardson (QB10, even), but I feel he'll be more of a gradual project than some other folks think. He's obviously got the arm, size, and speed, but that's another one I'm going to choose to slowplay.
Maybe Kyler comes back strong under Jonathan Gannon, but his style isn't the greatest complement to his size, especially following a stick of dynamite being detonated in his knee. Pickett got progressively better and seemed more comfortable as the season progressed, and Jordan Love should have been around long enough at this point to step into a starting role and be a top-20ish guy. Matthew Stafford throws a million interceptions and his INT rate is only getting worse as he ages, it's a hard pass for me. Derek Carr is arguably the second best QB on the Saints roster, I'm not sure you can justify not starting Taysom Hill after watching Derek Carr at times. Another hard pass. We're getting into the nitty-gritty.
26. Desmond Ridder (ECR: 31) +5
Clax Note: It's not that I think he'll be great, but he has several cheatcode options that will make him look way serviceable (Bijan Robinson + Kyle Pitts + Drake London). The offense runs the ball more often than not and won't be heavily reliant on him, so he won't have as many opportunities to screw up. I still think he's a hair better than his ECR would indicate but I'm not risking my neck for him. I won't go so far as to say he's a stellar first option for fantasy purposes, but I view Ridder as an intriguing second-year guy with weapons that could exceed (low) expectations.
27. Sam Howell (ECR: 29) +2
28. Jimmy Garoppolo (ECR: 26) -2
29. Mac Jones (ECR: 27) -2
30. Ryan Tannehill (ECR: 30) -
Clax Note: This is the bottom of the barrel, and if you're here then you're either taking a tremendous risk, you're some kind of a savant, or you're in a REAL bad spot, grasping at straws because the rest of your league has snatched up all other options in an act of sabotage.
There's your top-30 halfway through June, subject to change of course. I'm sure there'll be camp happenings and developments that might require some tweaks, but for now consider these the definitive quarterback rankings for your upcoming fantasy season. If you have any fantasy-related questions (I am a fantasy expert) or you'd like to complain to me about these rankings, feel free to hit my line at 1 (800) 382-5968 or drop me a line at @Clax_TN on Twitter. Good luck everybody!
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