FFB WEEK 15 - TWELVE TAKEAWAYS

It's fantasy football semifinals week for the lucky few who have made it this far. 

I am not one of those people.

Fear not! I'm not sulking and crying because it's over, I'm smiling because it happened. Fantasy football is weird and unforgiving, but I'm still here to answer any and all fantasy questions you might have. As you know, here at the Fantasy Football Boys fantasy department, we're dedicated to our readers. If you're making a playoff run, I trust you're at that point in the season because you've read my weekly blogs. Don't thank me yet, we only care about winning championships around these parts. 

1. Injuries galore! What the hell happened this week? Don't these guys know it's the playoffs for fantasy leagues everywhere? Such a lousy thing for them to do to the people who trusted them all year, very disloyal. 

The biggest inactives that shook things up were Tyreek Hill, Chris Olave, CJ Stroud, and Nathan Peterman, to name a few. Michael Pittman, Ja'Marr Chase, Keaton Mitchell, and Zack Moss were some of the other notables that had to leave their respective games prematurely, which may have affected matchups and could alter the upcoming weeks. After another week of epic practice footage, I thought for sure that this would be the week that Aaron Rodgers would come back to save the Jets, but he too was inactive.  

As always, waivers will provide a bit more clarity on where to go from here but prayers for all ye warriors that had to endure a tough week of injuries. The fantasy championship cocktail recipe calls for a shot of luck, it's all part of the finished product. I hope you made it out unscathed, but check injury reports early and often.  

2. I'm still IN on Justin Fields, but firmly OUT on the Bears. I trust my eyes above all else and I believe he's special. Don't check the box score, it's misleading.

Things might've looked a little different for Fields and the Bears if Robert Tonyan hadn't dropped what would've been an easy touchdown, but they also gave up 13 unanswered in the 4th quarter to Joe Flacco, so take your pick on what sucks more. The Bears are collectively a shitstorm and Justin Fields is trapped in the poop tornado. 

He's is in a tough spot but I still believe. If the Bears do bite the bullet and move on, it would only work in Fields' favor since we know he's not excelling there. Very few in the league* have the elusiveness and running ability that he has, and if his scenery changes we may having very different conversations about Fields over the next two years. As for me, I'm maintaining a top-5 ceiling if the situation is right. This isn't a blistering take - gentle reminder: he was QB7 last season when he ran 160 times for 1,143 yards and 8 TDs. 

3. *Lamar Jackson is the prototype. As far as strong arm/great runner goes, Lamar is the one nobody thought would pan out in the league. Even if he looks to pass more nowadays and scrambles a bit less, Lamar has trailblazed a new identity for dual-threat quarterbacks that Justin Fields needs to settle into. The Ravens' Sunday night win over the Jaguars was an LJ8 masterclass in extending plays, moving the pocket, and making shit happen. I'm sure there's a better term for it, but that's what he did. He's currently QB5 on the year with some tough matchups ahead and a season inside the top-10 would be his best since his otherworldly 2019 season when he finished QB1 and #2 overall. At times I realize that we've seen Lamar do so much insane shit that we might get a little desensitized to it. He's truly incredible, and here's a clip to prove it:

He was 14-for-24 for 171 passing yards, not his most dazzling stat line, but the 97 yards on the ground running wild from the Jags defense made all the difference in the world and helped pad his fantasy stats. 

4. Bench Patrick Mahomes! I've tried to diagnose the issues within the Kansas City offense ad nauseam, I won't do that anymore. It's too late. I also won't point out that Mahomes is trending toward his worst season since 2019 (when he missed 3 games). None of that matters anymore and for now, I'll just offer this advice: you may bench Mahomes, it is allowed. Insert that secondary option that's been outplaying him, it's fantasy football and the goal is to score more points. I wish I could say he's due for a breakout but I really don't think this offense has the capacity to support that. For much of the year, his receivers have acted as success-supressants and they still lead the league in drops. Don't take it from me, here's Patrick Mahomes doing curse-words after Kadarius Toney dropped a pass that led to an interception.  

Mahomes is QB15 since week 8. Sunday's game marks seven consecutive "below expected" scoring outputs. He's at just 10 TD/7 INT in that stretch. On Sunday, the first touchdown pass of the game wasn't even thrown by Patrick Mahomes, but instead Jerick McKinnon on a trick play. That's where we are with Mahomes and the frustration is fully warranted. The second half of his season has been atrocious and fantasy owners can't afford any bullshit in the playoffs. 

5. I'm not even gonna beat the dead horse anymore with Christian McCaffrey. The guy is out of this world, one of the biggest grand slam fantasy picks ever. After Sunday's game (192 all-purpose yards, 3 touchdowns), he's now tied with Raheem Mostert for the league lead in touchdowns and he's the first 49er to have 20+ TDs since Jerry fuggin Rice. He remains the runaway RB1 and #3 overall, outscoring the next highest running back by a full 65 fantasy points. What we're witnessing is the stuff of fantasy football legends, soak it in and enjoy yourself (unless of course you're playing against CMC in which case: welcome to hell).

Let the record show I'm also resisting the urge to post one of the steamy pics from his GQ photoshoot.

6. 

7. Prayers for Bijan fantasy owners. 

Last week when Arthur Blank said Arthur Smith's job was safe barring a "late season collapse", he probably wasn't expecting such a quick response because Sunday's loss definitely meets the criteria. Finding a way to lose to the one-win Panthers is about as strong a start to a collapse as I've ever seen. With the playoffs within reach, facing off against the lowly Panthers, Arthur Smith limits his best player to 8 touches and gets clipped. I don't use this word lightly, but what a cockapoopy coaching display that was. I'm not in the business of calling for peoples' jobs, but if there's such a thing as a fireable loss, this one qualifies.

Let that sink in: Bijan Robinson only had 8 touches. On those touches, he had 14 scrimmage yards and a fumble. He actually had -0.1 fantasy points, which isn't great, but you can't just shut him down on a day where not much else is working for your offense, either. A guy like Bijan can get loose sooner or later, but not if he isn't getting the ball. It makes no sense to give Tyler Allgeier double the carries and whatever Arthur Smith says in his press conferences is not smart, it's stubborn and it might cost him his job.  

Just when you think he's getting into a groove and his touches are in the 18-20 range, the rug gets pulled out. It's been one hell of a rollercoaster 2023 for Bijan owners, and I'd be willing to bet more than a few eliminations came about as a result of the tomfoolery in Atlanta. He's still RB12 in half-PPR leagues and he could realistically top 1,000 yards rushing, so it's been a fine rookie season overall. The bigger picture is that the Falcons suck significantly harder when he's not on the field, his usage has been baffling (infuriating) at times, and I'll never understand limiting your best player's touches. How is that ever conducive to success? 

If you can believe it, the Falcons only scored 7 points in a losing effort and I'm starting to think there's some relation between the Falcons offense being a toilet and Arthur Smith neglecting Bijan. 

Oh, and while we're on the subject - Kyle Pitts had 3 catches for 37 yards. #ClaxWasRight #DropKylePitts 

8. The Vikings and Bengals game was... fun? Despite both teams scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of their starting quarterbacks, it was a delightful rock fight and actually spit out some big fantasy performances. Mullens had a decent showing, but I'm still laughing at him standing up and signifying that, yes, he threw a pass. We know you threw a pass, Nick! The only problem is that said pass went a very short distance and landed in the defender's lap for an interception. Thank you for the clarification.

All things considered, it was a fruitful fantasy day for several Vikings skill players. Ty Chandler looked strong in his first real action as lead back handling 81% of the offensive snaps, rushing 23 times for 132 yards and a TD. Jordan Addison also caught all 6 targets for 111 yards and notched two touchdowns. Finally, as Justin Jefferson works his way back from injury he caught 7 passes for 84 yards, a respectable line and double digit output.  

On the Bengals' side of things Joe Mixon continued a steady run and scored his 4th TD in 3 weeks. Ja'Marr Chase went down with a shoulder injury and looks like he'll miss some time, but that allowed for the re-emergence of a (finally) healthy Tee Higgins who scored twice and is elevated moving forward.

9. The Buffalo Bills: 
I bet you didn't think you'd be getting a Monty Python and the Holy Grail gif while reading a fantasy football blog. Think again.

The bad: Josh Allen attempted 15 passes and threw for 94 yards. The good: He threw zero interceptions. Only the third time this year that that's happened! Besides, they really didn't need to do much in this one except hand the ball off to James Cook. He carried 25 times for 179 yards and a score. Quick calculation: that's an astonishing 7.16 yards per carry. The Cowboys got gashed. Cook even plopped a cherry on top of this delicious fantasy performance with 2 catches for 42 yards and a receiving touchdown. 35.1 fantasy points in half-PPR format and good enough for RB2 on the week. Don't look now, but he's RB3 from week 10 onward and with Joe Brady calling the shots he's approaching "league-winner" status if this keeps this up.   

10. The Eagles have looked like dogshit this past month.  Let me church it up: the Eagles haven't looked their best lately. I'm not jumping to conclusions right yet - I still trust that the Eagles and Jalen Hurts will get right. Conversely, maybe Joey Bosa was onto something when he said the 49ers unearthed a blueprint to put the brakes on Jalen Hurts. Maybe the curtain's been pulled back and they're a little more predictable than they think. Here's Christian McCaffrey sniffing out a QB draw before it even happens just based on the formation:

Whatever the case, a loss to Drew Lock and the Seahawks makes it three straight losses for the Birds. To be fair, Jalen Hurts reportedly had a wicked case of the Philly Fever, chills, and chocolate shotguns, so process this information however you see fit. 

Regardless, it was a second consecutive outing without a passing touchdown for Hurts. He did, however, compensate for that with two rushing touchdowns (13 carries for 82 yards) leading to a solid 21.92 fantasy points. That puts him at 14 rushing scores this season, surpassing last year's total of 13. His value as a runner is unmatched, and he has more rushing touchdowns in 2023 than Christian McCaffrey. If you wanna think about it this way, on Monday night he basically gave fantasy owners a top-15 RB stat line with passing yards tacked onto that as a bonus. He is dual-threat royalty in the fantasy realm and this game is a perfect showcase for that versatility. Even with a measly 143 yards passing and 2 INTs, he was still QB5 for week 15 when it matters most for fantasy playoff implications. 

Through all of this, there are still some mild concerns. Since the Eagles bye in week 10, Hurts is at just 4 passing TD and 4 INT, so the passing game has taken a small step back. It'd be nice to see the well-rounded offense we're used to, but Hurts has scored 7 rushing touchdowns in that stretch so he's getting his production, just in different ways.

11. Another potential candidate for "league-winner" status has to be David Njoku. Back in October, he somehow burnt his entire body in an unfortunate smelting accident. He played through the pain and showed up to games looking like a Bond villain.

It's been a weird and wacky run of quarterbacks for the Browns, but they've settled in with Joe Flacco and Njoku has has a nice back half of the season. On Sunday, he had 10 catches for 104 yards and a TD to follow up a 6/91/2 performance the week before. He seems to be hitting his stride at the perfect time and the Browns are letting Flacco fire away. They pulled off the unlikely upset over the Bears this past week, they've somehow won 9 games this season, and the playoffs are looking like a reality unless they completely melt down. 

12. Monitor Will Levis' status heading into Week 16.

Week 15 Win The Waiver Wire sponsored by Applebees:

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      (These are in no particular order, pick who you like/need/is available and go WIN THE WAIVER WIRE!)

      • Trey Sermon - If Jonathan Taylor is still out and Zack Moss can't go, then Sermon is the obvious next option. He looked good in relief on Sunday with 17 carries for 88 yards. 
      • Noah Brown - I've harped on it for several weeks now. He's capable of top-15ish production and he should get CJ Stroud back this week. Keep an eye on Nico Collins' calf injury, but Brown has it in him. 
      • Ty Chandler - Alexander Mattison is an afterthought at this point and the backfield is Chandler's to lose. He looked great Sunday (see above), snag him if available as a RB2/viable flex option. 
      • Zamir White - This one is injury dependent, because if Josh Jacobs plays then White is obsolete. He did look solid on Sunday (17/69/1) while Jacobs was sidelined, though...
      • Jerick McKinnon - I still like McKinnon over Clyde Edwards-Helaire, even if CEH did have a nice, leaping TD catch. Not to be outdone, McKinnon also caught a TD pass and threw one as well. As long as Pacheco is out, I'm rolling the dice on McKinnon.
      • Chase Brown - While Mixon is healthy Brown is limited to change-of-pace duties, but he's got wheels and he's averaging 10 touches/week over the last 3. 
      • Isaiah Likely - He's stepped up since Mark Andrews went down and Sunday night's outburst may see him owned a bit more in fantasy leagues, but coming out of the bye he's been on fire and the chemistry with Lamar seems to be there. Grab if you can.
      • Josh Palmer (........or Questin Johnston 😈) - Palmer led the way this past Thursday with Keenan Allen out and caught all 4 targets for 113 yards and a TD. Quentin Johnston is stringing me along and also caught a TD, but Palmer is the safer option of the two. 
      • Odell Beckham Jr. - He was quiet on Sunday, but so was the Ravens passing game. In weeks 9-14, he was WR21, averaging 10 fantasy points/game, which is a tolerable flex number if you're dealing with injuries.
      • Curtis Samuel - If you're needy, not a bad flex option. He's come on strong over the last 3 weeks or so, and a quarterback change in Washington seems to have benefited him on Sunday as he saw 9 targets and turned two of them into TD catches. Jahan Dotson has flopped in a big way and Samuel is the secondary guy behind McLaurin.

      Good luck in the seminfinals. Win the waiver wire, now's not the time to pinch pennies. Empty the coffers and get your guys for a late push. I'll be living vicariously through all of you so please hit my line (@Clax_TN on X/Twitter) with any and all success stories.

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