RIP To NFL Kickoffs

The NFL has passed a new rule instituting all fair catches and touchbacks come out to the 25-yard line on kickoffs, source said. Now the same as the college rule, the thought is that this should make it safer, though special teams coaches around the league oppose the change.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) May 23, 2023

Speaking on the new fair catch rule, NFL exec Jeff Miller cites higher concussion rates on kickoffs and punts relative to other plays and says unprompted: “There may be more to come.”

Modeling says return rate will drop from 38% to 31% and concussion rate drop 15%, Miller says.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) May 23, 2023

Don’t look now but the tackle football league consisting of guys that weigh 300 pounds and run sub-5 second forty yard dashes is wrought with concussion issues. Who woulda thought? So long as this remains a full-contact league I’m not sure concussions are going away, but that’s not stopping fans from watching the carnage nor the NFL from trying to take precautions. The latest preventative measure is focused on kickoffs. 

What we're seeing here in real time is the NFL inching closer and closer to axing kickoffs altogether. Under the new rule, returners can now fair catch it anywhere inside the 25-yard line. Already a dying art, this only serves to further bury kickoffs and piss on the grave. 

They're slashing kickoff returns by a projected 7% next season - something like 3 out of every 10 kickoffs will actually be returned now, according to modeling used by the league. I could be wrong here, but it the incentive’s now in place to take less of a gamble and a lot of teams will approach it as one less thing to worry about. The risk vs. benefit of actually returning a kick continues to skew and teams will be less likely to run that risk. 

This stinks at its core. I know they’re doing this out of an abundance of caution to try and limit injuries, but it still stinks. Kickoffs have been pretty tame since they moved the kickers up, there’s a lot of touchbacks nowadays. Surely there are other areas they can tweak without devaluing special teamers and special teams coaches. I also just happen to like kickoffs.  Long returns are fun, and I like when they happen. Everyone loves when a return specialist tries to be a hero, takes a kickoff 7 yards deep in their own endzone, busts it for an 11 yard return only to get pummeled by a journeyman wedgebuster or a third-string tight end. We’ll see less of that with the new rule. Dan Connelly’s enormous ass almost returning a squib kick for a TD would’ve never happened. We'll almost definitely see less Cordarrelle Patterson-esque players going for 100+ yards. Thank goodness Cordarrelle Patterson existed prior to this rule. He’s basically gonna be a Hall-of-Famer as the greatest kick returner of all time. Guys will lose out on chances to make special teams plays and get kudos in the film room. When else will guys like Will Compton get the opportunity to bang bodies if it's nothing but fair catches now?

I selfishly hope this doesn’t wipe kickoffs out, but I guess I understand the logic. I still hope there are some positive moves to find other ways to make the game safer without fundamentally altering the game itself.