FFB WEEK 13 - TWELVE TAKEAWAYS

Come on into the Fantasy Football Boys lounge where we talk fantasy football. Welcome!

Fancy a beer while you wait? Cocktail? Ok, cool, what'll it be? Ice cold Schlitz? Nice choice, I can tell you're a real diplomat. Get comfortable in one of our fine leather chairs, we're gonna be here a while. Oh, you're ready to talk shop? You wanna talk fantasy football? Perfect, me too. 

1. It is officially Threat Level Midnight for Patrick Mahomes. On Sunday, he was bad. 21/33 for 210 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception. Again, chalk it up to the lack of a standout receiver or injuries on the offensive line, but it's been a grind if you're starting Mahomes, no other way to put it. Dare I say something I never thought I'd say: He's become a liability if you're a playoff contender.

It was yet another miserable fantasy output, and he's now put up <20 fantasy points in 7 of his last 9 games. The concern level is at an all-time high and fantasy owners are left with the same questions I posed in Week 8: Is Matt Nagy actually the root of the problem? Is Eric Bienemy the secret ingredient? Mahomes is still clinging to QB8 status, but we're allowed to say it: He's been a massive flop as the second or third QB off the board prior to this season. 

When these types of tweets start surfacing, you know Patrick Mahomes has been playing like a garbage can (OR is Tommy DeVito a certified dude? You be the judge).

2. The Texans won again, but at what cost? On Sunday, Tank Dell suffered a fractured fibula and his season is over. Unfortunately, Tank Dell's rookie campaign has been cut short and he'll finish out with a 47/709/7 stat line, WR17 as it stands. He was trending in the right direction and the CJ Stroud/Tank Dell connection was fun while it lasted, but goodnight sweet prince. 

The NFL is a meat market so it's next man up at all times. Nico Collins is immediately elevated to WR1 territory and he backed that up in a big way on Sunday with 9 catches for 191 yards and a TD, a tidy 29.6 fantasy points. With the Dell injury his stock is still rising even though he's already at WR10 on the season and this might just be his formal breakout season. Set it and forget it, he could be a league-winner down the stretch. 

It wasn't even his absolute best, but CJ Stroud did enough to slip past the Broncos and move the Texans to 7-5, well within striking distance in the AFC South. At this point, Stroud has to outplay the likes of CJ Beathard and Gardner Minshew if he wants to win the division. The MVP talk has cooled off but Stroud has locked up Rookie of the Year and an AFC South crown would be an amazing feat (+900 preseason odds). 

These videos haven't gotten any less cool so enjoy another one:

3. It was week that was marred by injuries and the Jaguars' body count is rising. First, Christian Kirk made a catch and fell awkwardly, squishing his balls in the process. I’m no urologist but it looked like he smashed his sac between his thighs when he fell. It must've been pretty bad because he missed the rest of the game and is in question for next week. Prayers that nothing is ruptured in his scrotal region, that seems like an absolute nightmare. 

Additionally, in the 4th quarter, Trevor Lawrence had one of his offensive linemen step on his ankle. As we all know, offensive linemen weigh a lot and he had to leave the game. To add insult to injury, the Jaguars don’t have any motorized vehicles and Trevor Lawrence had to walk half a mile to the locker room on a sprained ankle. The Jags took "walk it off" to a whole new level last night:

4. Christian McCaffrey is blasting off. 

Wait, how did this picture get in here?


Sorry about that. Got off track for a second. Where were we? Ah, yes. Football stuff. 

Christian McCaffrey is having such a stupidly good season and I don't even think we're talking about it enough, he’s legitimately doing superhero shit. Let the record show that I'm here, 13 weeks in, to pay it the respect it deserves. He's comfortably RB1 and he's also #3 overall, ahead of everyone but Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. So far, he's at 272 total touches and 1,461 all-purpose yards, on pace for nearly 400 touches and 2,069 yards. He's scored 17 total touchdowns, which is one more than the Patriots have scored all year... that's right, the whole team. He's gone >100 scrimmage yards in all but three games and he's scored a touchdown in all but one. Fantasy royalty and a true jackhammer in every sense of the word. 

On Sunday he gashed the Birds on their own turf for 133 total yards and another rushing touchdown. Too bad for the Eagles their fatso security guard getting kicked off the sideline didn't motivate them to play better and they got cooked up real nice, 42-19. 

5. 


6. I might’ve jumped the gun on the “sell JaMarr Chase” talk. Listen, I’m not too proud to admit that, this one's on me. Sometimes when you're serving hot ham and eggs in the fantasy realm, you get things wrong. In my defense, Jake Browning was better than I ever expected him to be in the OT win. Shit, he was better than anyone was expecting him to be. Who amongst us saw 32-for-37 for 354, a passing TD and a rushing TD? 

Either way, I’m officially putting Chase in the rare category where external factors don’t really affect him all that much. Bad matchup, backup QB, it matters not - he’s still gonna get his touches. He finished with 11 catches, 149 yards, and a TD (WR8 on the week). When he himself said "I'm always fucking open" it appears he was right.

7. If you’re not in panic mode with Austin Ekeler yet, here’s your cue. Ekeler is still getting work with looks out of the backfield, but his numbers are way down.

This is made even more troublesome when you look at some aspects of his running game, which has largely been futile after week 1 when he carried 16 times for 117 yards. Since then he’s only gone >100 scrimmage yards twice and he's been no better than RB32 over his last 3 games. Overall, we’re talking about a guy that was in the RB1 conversation prior to the season, and he’s simply not delivering anything close to that. He’s in the midst of arguably the worst season of his career and has only scored 5 total touchdowns. Maybe it’s the Chargers offense as a whole, they have a tendency to be insanely frustrating. Maybe it’s Brandon Staley and he really is harpooning their success. The fact remains that Ekeler is RB28 in half-PPR leagues and only RB26 in PPR. For a back that’s been a perennial fantasy workhorse and a "sure thing" first-round draft pick, these are sickening numbers. 

8. The Jets are still a tire fire, nothing's changed. A quick synopsis of their season: Aaron Rodgers critically wounded within seconds of debuting as a Jet. Zach Wilson thrust into the spotlight as a starter (he stinks). Tim Boyle takes over for Zach Wilson (he stinks too). Zach Wilson again asked to fulfill his role as a starter, hesitant to accept:

In what world does he stay employed? He's scared of getting hurt and doesn't want to be the starter? Uhhhh no shit, pal. You're gonna get destroyed behind that O-line, you're gonna take an inordinate amount of hits, but what are the Jets paying you for? Take a second and understand that the Jets are giving him $3,855,516 for 2023. Absolute highway robbery. An all-time heist. If there wasn't sizable dollar amounts attached to him I would lock him out of the facility for this. Total coward behavior and I was right when I said his confidence is shot.

9. It's time to fire Ron Rivera. The Commanders are now 4-9. Sam Howell is 2nd in the league in passing yards but he's been sacked 58 times (next most is Bryce Young at 44). He's lost 4 in a row and players are pissed off, some even actively talking about leaving:

10. The Saints should just start Taysom Hill. Enough Derek Carr, enough Jameis. Throw something at your opponents that makes them gameplan totally differently than what they've had to before. I said this in Week 2 and the Saints have the chance to just plug him in there full-time for a while to see how he does if Derek Carr is out with a concussion. Let Taysom Hill run the option with Alvin Kamara and see what develops. Everybody else is hurt and the NFC South is terrible, let's get weird with it.

11. Now that we know Sean McVay is a fantasy football boy himself, it may be time to start early investing plans for Kyren Williams:

Kyren Williams has missed 4 weeks and is still RB7. He's just in his second year and his name will be at the top of draft boards next season. Sean McVay has found his guy.  

12. The injury gods were cruel this week. Not even the chain gang was safe from their wrath:

Week 13 Win The Waiver Wire sponsored by Applebees:

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      (These are in no particular order, pick who you like/need/is available and go WIN THE WAIVER WIRE!)

      • Ezekiel Elliott - This week, more than ever, it’s imperative that you take my sage advice and win the waiver wire. There were lots of injuries and playoffs are looming, you don’t wanna be that guy with your thumb up your butt, unable to fill out a roster and scrambling to pick up some D-tier dipshit for your starting lineup. If you or a loved one has been affected by the Rhamondre Stevenson injury, go get Zeke. He’ll have plenty of volume and he’s a hog in the red zone. 
      • Tyjae Spears - He’s been fun in a limited change-of-pace role, but Derrick Henry is in concussion protocol so that role might just be elevated this week. Keep close tabs on it, but he’s worth a pickup, especially if you have Henry. 
      • Noah Brown - Again, the injuries have piled up, but this is why you read the blog. Tank Dell down, Noah Brown up. Reminder that he was WR2 and WR7 in weeks 9 and 10, respectively. He’s got it in him and he should have more opportunities now. 
      • Jayden Reed - As we see Jordan Love and Christian Watson break out, don’t forget about our friend Jayden Reed. It was a slower game against Kansas City, but he had scored a touchdown in the three games prior to that and the Packers like his versatility as a runner. 
      • Quentin Johnston - Damn it, I’m back doing the same thing. Why am I the way I am? Just when I thought I was fully out and he couldn’t embarrass me any more, he goes out and catches 5 of 7 targets for 52 yards. Jalen Guyton wasn’t much to write home about, so it seems like the Chargers are stuck with Johnston and his raw potential is still worth a gamble if (and only if) you’re pressed. 
      •  HANDCUFFS - Tyler Allgeier/Chase Brown/Rico Dowdle - These are guys that might otherwise narrowly miss the waivers list, but they’re well worth a small investment if you’re rostering Bijan Robinson, Joe Mixon, or Tony Pollard. It’s the playoffs, and you can’t risk losing those types of reps by not having a backup plan. It’s handcuff szn so act accordingly. 
      • Keaton Mitchell - The Ravens were on a bye last week, so maybe your league got impatient and dropped him. Check to see, because he was making a strong case for lead back status before the break. 
      • Jaylin Hyatt - The Giants were also on a bye last week, so one would hope to see DeVito and the boys come back refreshed. Prior to the bye, Hyatt logged his first career 100 yard game and he remains a true home run threat whenever he steps on the field.
      • Zay Jones/Parker Washington - If Christian Kirk’s ballsack did indeed explode on Monday night, these are the next two receivers who would see a notable bump in activity. 
      • Jonathan Mingo - I think I’ve had Mingo on this list the most, and he’s likely still available because… well, the Panthers are ass. HOWEVA, Jonathan Mingo looks like he’s finally starting to settle into his role and get comfortable with Bryce Young. In his last two games, he’s gone 4/60 and 6/69 and I still think Bryce Young is a special talent, so there’s plenty of reason for optimism there in an offense that can only go up. 
      • Chigoziem Okonkwo - He showed some flashes last year, and Will Levis got him involved on Sunday, finally. It was just 3 catches for 62 yards, but that’s his best output of the year and he was getting some big-hitters to the tune of 20.67 yards per catch. The Titans will likely be playing from behind most of the year so hopefully there’s ample targets to go around. There may be some momentum and chemistry there for Chig and Levis to work off of if you’re in a spot of need at TE.
      • Elijah Moore - Amari Cooper has been hampered by injuries recently and got his bell rung on Sunday. I can’t believe I’m saying this in 2023, but I believe Elijah Moore benefits from Joe Flacco behind center and he could be in line for targets if Cooper stays concussed. He had 125 unrealized air yards and a 27% target share this week with Flacco, for what it's worth. 
      I hope you thoroughly enjoyed your time in the Fantasy Football Boys lounge. 

      Once again, thank you all for reading and I hope you’re #aggressive this week. Put the hay in the barn, as they say. Make sure you don’t schrute the waiver wire as we’re approaching CRUNCH TIME because that would be unacceptable. If you’ve read this, congratulations. You can rest easy knowing you’re that much smarter than your opponent and you’re setting yourself up for success. Now go out there and destroy. 

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