FFB WEEK 16 - TWELVE TAKEAWAYS

This is it. You've made it this far, it's time to empty the tank. IT'S CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK. It's time to go all in.

The hay's in the barn, you know what to do from here. The waivers at the bottom are for the poor and destitute, or those that are dealing with an unfortunate injury late in the season (TJ Hockenson). It's been a pleasure to be your shining light throughout this fantasy season and I hope you win all your leagues. 


 Cheers to that. Now, on to the goods.

1. Amari Cooper! A Christmas Eve miracle! His present to everyone who entrusted him was a nice, throbbing 46-burger. It's a tall order to unseat Alvin Kamara's 50-pointer in 2020 when he scored 6 touchdowns, but it was an influential performance for fantasy playoff matchups nonetheless. Things I didn't have on my 2023 bingo board: Joe Flacco as QB1 in week 16, at 38 years old, playing for the Browns. 

It was the Amari Cooper show in their win over the Texans, but let us not forget that David Njoku had another touchdown catch on the way to 13.4 fantasy points in half-PPR formats making it three TE1 caliber weeks in a row. Browns receivers seem to be thriving with Flacco at the helm. 

2. The above graphic is a perfect segway into my next topic: Trevor Lawrence might not be as explosive as I once thought. He has only two 300-yard games to his name this season, and a total of 8 through his first three seasons. Joe Flacco has had 3 straight after coming off the couch a few weeks ago! Listen, I realize that's a lazy cherry-pick of a stat to throw out there, and the Jags have looked pretty ass at times this year, but they're still 1st in the AFC South. Let me start over - I'll give Trevor a lifeline here with this snippet:
If you don't feel like looking at that chart, I'll translate: Trevor Lawrence has played a shit ton of snaps against defenses in the top third of the league. The most in the league, to be exact. 

I was incredibly high on Lawrence coming into this season (I had him at QB4), it looked like he made the jump last year and he had a lot of his key offensive components back. There's no reason to believe he can't be a top-8 or so guy moving forward and by no means am I out on Trevor Lawrence, but this just hasn't been his year and a 19:12 TD to INT ratio isn't what we wanted to see following up last season when he finished QB8. Whatever the case they only mustered 12 points against the Bucs last week, and Trevor Lawrence is a very MID QB12 as it stands today while he battles through another injury. It makes sense, when he's taking hits like these:

3. Lamar Jackson now favorite to win MVP at -200 odds. I know it's predominantly a quarterback award, but Brock Purdy was never really a serious candidate was he? His running back was the only reason he was in the discussion to begin with. Thankfully, the universe hath corrected itself and CMC is now ahead of Purdy, so it doesn’t matter anyway.

The fantasy QB4 led his Ravens to a two-touchdown victory over one of the league's powerhouses and now Lamar is the MVP favorite, rightfully so. I'm not sure the meaning or significance of Lamar Jackson's tweet, but he's been on one hell of a heater ever since.     4. 

5. I tried to tell ya about Mahomes and the chiefs offense. It’s broken as hell and I'm not sure it's fixable. Why are we trying this fancy shit against a team that has Maxx Crosby across from you? There's trickery then there's unnecessary, this is the latter. 

What's more, you've got Andy Reid FED UP with Travis Kelce's shit on the sidelines. And you know what? I'm sick of these shitheads too. I won't even talk about the nonsense that's accompanied Travis Kelce's relationship status and the unavoidable onslaught of coverage that's been forced into our face since that became a thing. Maybe that's not even a factor in real life, maybe Travis is distracted, I don't know! The issue is, the Chiefs offense sucks ass. Travis Kelce hasn't scored since week 11 and is throwing fits on the sideline, having to get reeled in by Andy Reid. Patrick Mahomes has scored sub-20 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games.  

I really and truly believe Matt Nagy replacing Eric Bienemy is a bigger factor than most others. Don't say it's because Tyreek left, Mahomes was QB1 last year and threw for over 5,000 yards. Don't say it's Andy Reid, it'll never be Andy Reid. Kelce is on a cold streak but he's hardly the issue. Everyone's frustrated and I'm not sure this fracture can be repaired. I'm hitting the big red button with the Chiefs.  

6. Tony Pollard didn't score on this play.

One of, if not the single biggest fantasy busts of 2023. Barely inside the top-20 at RB18.  

7. Jahmyr Gibbs is the bomb. This is a pure L1 juke that sent the defender horizontal in the opposite direction.

This was a thing of beauty and Gibbs had two touchdowns on Sunday leading to 22 fantasy points. David Montgomery is still around and scored a TD on Sunday, but Gibbs is all the way up to RB7 in half-PPR leagues and Bijan Robinson is suddenly old news...

8. Speaking of Bijan, he got 19 total touches and the Falcons won. What's so hard to understand about this? Give the guy 15-20 touches at minimum and good things happen. He caught 7 passes for 50 yards and ran 12 times for 72. Despite no touchdown, it was yet another example of why he's been an underutilized powder keg in 2023. Even when you account for two weeks totaling -0.1 fantasy points, he's still RB12. The Falcons bested the Colts 29-10 on Sunday so they're back on track, but the lone Falcons rushing score wasn't Bijan...

Perfect usage of the Homelander meme.  

9. Tee Higgins might carry the most "league-winner" tag of all time after another massive game on Sunday with Ja'Marr Chase out (and possibly missing another week). The Bengals collectively got bufu'd, but Higgins was still able to salvage a strong fantasy output. If Chase misses next week, he has to be a smash start as the Bengals' WR1 and he's delivered 3 touchdowns since stepping into that role. They may not all be 80-yard big doinks like this one, but he's seen a robust 8 targets in each of the last two games.

10. With George Pickens, you're dealt a little heaven and a little hell. 

Last week was hell:

This week fantasy owners got a little slice of heaven:

It's no mystery that George Pickens is a stud but the question is: can he A. get a quarterback who routinely gets him the football, and B. chill the hell out and handle himself like an adult? The whole "no blocking" thing was a bit of a problem and he answered that question WAY too honestly. Teammates can't like that and I hope he learned a little bit of a lesson there on how to cover his tracks. Either way, George Pickens turned the week 16 fantasy football tides in any matchups where he was actually involved (roughly 37% of them).

11. Things are a big fat stinky mess in Denver. Russ benched.

How right was Steve Smith? Jerry Jeudy is a certified bum.

 12. He may not be Austin Ekeler, it's too early to tell, but Zamir White is doing that thing where the backup plays well in the absence of a starter that's demanding a fat, long-term paycheck. On Monday, he rushed 22 times for 145 yards after a solid week 15 when he went for 17/69/1. This just goes to show that running backs can hold out and ask for all the money in the world, but there's always gonna be someone waiting in the eaves to seize the opportunity if teams call their bluff. I'm not sure why anyone would pay for running backs in this era, and Zamir White is the latest example of why you can get away with going the cheaper route. 

This run essentially put the game on ice and cemented the upset of the Chiefs. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Josh Jacobs is just as dispensable as the next guy.

Week 16 Win The Waiver Wire sponsored by Applebees:

We here at the Fantasy Football Boys fantasy department are "Eatin' good in the neighborhood™"
Do NOT drink the $1 margaritas they will give you diarrhea and the rotgut

Shoutout Applebees thanks for sponsoring us!

        (These are in no particular order, pick who you like/need/is available and go WIN THE WAIVER WIRE!)

        • Zamir White - See above. If Jacobs can't go, he's been great. 
        • Baker Mayfield - Why the hell not? 8 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, and 0 interceptions over the last 3 weeks. 
        • Joe Flacco - How sick would it be to win a league with Joe Flacco as your starter? Again, see above - 3 straight 300-yard games. 
        • Clyde Edwards-Helaire - I was notably in on Jerick McKinnon, but he's on the IR with a groin and Pacheco's availability has been a bit spotty as of late. CEH has had some decent showings in relief, including receiving work. Pacheco is in concussion protocol on a short week, so it's not looking great. 
        • Tyler Allgeier - We're back at square one with Allgeier. It's worth noting that he finished very strong last season, maybe he's doing the same thing this year. It's a purposeful Arthur Smith split backfield, but Allgeier had 10 touches for 88 total yards and a touchdown on Sunday. Plus, he handles the majority of the red zone work for Atlanta.
        • Gus Edwards - We're riding the Gus Bus until the wheels come all the way off. Keaton Mitchell is out, Justice Hill is still outpacing Edwards in touches, but Edwards has a knack for the endzone (second straight game with a score) and was more efficient on the ground Monday night. I'm riding Edwards into the sunset. 
        • KJ Osborn - TJ Hockenson is out for the year, so the next pass-catcher in line for targets is likely KJ Osborn. Especially if Jordan Addison misses time. 
        • Jameson Williams - This is a bit of a reach and he's only scored two touchdowns all year, but his target share is slowly creeping up and he's gotten 7 and 6 targets, respectively, in the last two games. Eventually the dam will break. 
        • Chigoziem Okonkwo - It wasn't the most conventional of plays, but he caught his first touchdown of the season on Sunday. Sure, Derrick Henry was the one throwing the pass, but the Titans seem intent on getting him involved, finally. He's averaging over 5 targets a game the last 4 weeks and he's coming off a season-best 63 yards plus the score, so he's worth a shot if you're in a bind and subscribe to the theory of momentum. 
        • Kareem Hunt - Another red zone hog, this timeshare in Cleveland isn't exactly the most lucrative but the red zone looks gotta count for something. He's definitely a touchdown-dependent option, but if the Browns get down there he's more than likely gonna handle that workload. 
        • Romeo Doubs - Everyone else in Green Bay is dinged up. If they're missing time he should have his fair share of work cut out for him. He had 4/79/1 last week with his counterparts nursing injuries.
        Good luck to everyone competing for a league championship. I'm glad to have guided you this far, don't falter now! Eyes ahead and trust in the good work you've done so far. Thanks for reading and as always, hit my line at @Clax_TN on X/Twitter. Cheers!

        Comments

        Post a Comment

        Popular posts from this blog

        The National Media Hates The Vols, Vol. 2: NCAA Infractions Edition

        Image
        Here we go again.  Welcome back to everyone's favorite. It's another edition of " THE NATIONAL MEDIA HATES THE VOLS ".  In this installment, we'll cover the recent Tennessee football fines and the predictable faux-outrage that's followed from the national media.    Here's an explanation on what all went down  leading up to this past week's announcement.  CliffsNotes: In 2021, Tennessee did an internal investigation which led to Jeremy Pruitt getting shitcanned for being bad/breaking the rules. In addition to the allegations, he stunk while he was at Tennessee - we lost to Kentucky at home (a fireable offense in itself). After that, the NCAA got involved, did their own thing, and we got slapped with some sanctions and a fine. And not just any fine, more than $8 million.  As you might imagine, this decision from the NCAA drew scrutiny from the squeaky wheels that live to bash Tennessee and its fans. If you listen closely you can hear them, screaming at t
        Read more

        Jeff Goodman Is A Loser

        Image
        I've been at war with the national media for almost 7 years. It's not a big deal, but I've been fighting the good fight ever since "Schiano Sunday" in late 2017 when my eyes were opened to the shit that happens when media members "befriend" coaches and athletic directors. It's a dangerous game and there's a lot of behind-the-scenes maneuvering to make sure stories break the way that people want them to.  Whenever you're reading anything that's written by these select few, just know that they're very sensitive, fragile individuals. Jeff Goodman, Pat Forde, Dan Wolken, Dennis Dodd... they're all hyper-sensitive and soft. If a coach/AD is friendly and makes these dorks feel important, then they generally act nicer and will even volunteer to carry their water. If a coach/AD is mean to them in a presser or ignores calls and doesn't scratch their belly, then they tend to become very fussy and resort to hit pieces. This is the way t
        Read more

        FFB WEEK 13 - TWELVE TAKEAWAYS

        Image
        Come on into the Fantasy Football Boys lounge where we talk fantasy football. Welcome! Fancy a beer while you wait? Cocktail? Ok, cool, what'll it be? Ice cold Schlitz? Nice choice, I can tell you're a real diplomat. Get comfortable in one of our fine leather chairs, we're gonna be here a while. Oh, you're ready to talk shop? You wanna talk fantasy football? Perfect, me too.  1. It is officially Threat Level Midnight for Patrick Mahomes . On Sunday, he was bad. 21/33 for 210 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception. Again, chalk it up to the lack of a standout receiver or injuries on the offensive line, but it's been a grind if you're starting Mahomes, no other way to put it. Dare I say something I never thought I'd say: He's become a liability if you're a playoff contender. It was yet another miserable fantasy output, and he's now put up <20 fantasy points in 7 of his last 9 games. The concern level is at an all-time high and fantasy owners ar
        Read more