FFB Week 12: Twelve Takeaways

It's the Fantasy Football Boys Twelve Takeaways Solstice! 

Happy holiday to those of you that celebrate... 

...and a venomous "go to hell" for those of you that don't. 

Twelve Takeaways from week 12 of NFL action, only happens once a year. What a treat! 

Speaking of treats, this is the last time we'll convene before Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving!

I don't know about you, but damn am I looking forward to the casseroles. 

The most gluttonous of holidays will be paired with three delectable ballgames for us to enjoy once the food fatigue sets in with our feet kicked up and our pants unbuttoned:

  • Bears/Lions (potential blowout), 
  • Giants/Cowboys (Cooper Rush vs. Tommy DeVito/Drew Lock... the saddest iteration in Thanksgiving history), and 
  • Packers/Dolphins (might be an okay game) 
Here's you some takeaways to digest before you focus on pounds and pounds of turkey tomorrow.

1. Thursday night snow game!

What a sight. From the field being green, to the snow starting, to a full whiteout. Just an absolute delight to watch in real time as fat-ass snowflakes started to cover the field, frozen tundra style. The Browns shocked the Steelers thanks to a Jameis Winston rushing touchdown and a timely two-point conversion to David Njoku, halting the Steelers win streak of 5 games.

It was nice to see Nick Chubb rounding into form after a slow start coming back from his gruesome knee injury. He toted it 20 times for just 59 yards which isn't great, but he scored twice to make up for it en route to a RB7 week. He's one that could just gain steam over the next several weeks and do serious damage in fantasy postseason matchups. 

George Pickens wild'd out again.

It's been an up and down year for Pickens so far and he decided to take his frustrations out on Greg Newsome after the failed Hail Mary attempt to end the game. His bizarro behavior has mostly outweighed his production up to this point with just two touchdowns on the season (WR47), but I still find myself drawn to him, dialed in on his snaps. It's something fresh, dumb, and exhilarating every game - must-watch TV if you're a sicko. 

Miles Garrett is not of this world.

On Thursday night I kept making comments about how big his arms are and my buddy eventually asked me to stop being a pervert, but the point stands. His arms are on a permanent pump. Needless to say, he's the leader in the clubhouse for 2024's Best Arms Award, currently held by Danielle Hunter. 

Oh, and he also has 10 sacks on the season, third-most in the league.    

2. Kavontae Turpin with the most aloof return of all time.

This game was hammered drunk. From this Turpin return to the McLaurin touchdown/missed XP, then a housed onside kick leading to another potential chance for a Hail Mary attempt? This game had everything. 

The plateau theory that I mentioned last week wasn’t terribly far from the truth, as Jayden Daniels struggled in the pocket for most of the game. Hell, he'd thrown for just 88 yards up until the 5-minute mark in the 4th quarter. It was putrid. 

After spending several hours analyzing the All-22 footage, it seems like bringing more pressure, spying Daniels, and taking away the safer, underneath options that Daniels has thrived on is what's happening. His average depth of target has dipped to 7.4 in the last four games and teams are simply making the adjustments that NFL defenses tend to make when they have eleven weeks of film to work with. If you take out one play (the 86-yard Terry McLaurin bullshit fluke touchdown on Sunday), Daniels would've been averaging 197.25 passing yards/game over his last four. 

It's been a tough stretch, no doubt about it, but I'm willing to consider that his rib injury has hampered him a bit.

I've said some critical things about Jayden Daniels. The fact is, lightning struck again and Sunday ended up being a 30.40 fantasy point day thanks to 74 yards rushing on 7 carries and a TD. Fantasy owners can exhale, but Commanders fans were put through the emotional blender.

3. What's eating CJ Stroud?

Brutal way to lose a game, especially to the Titans. You're at least temporarily tarnished, wearing a scarlet letter of sorts if you go full "Orlovsky" and Stroud did exactly that. To make matters worse, he's been flat-out brutal for the vast majority of this year. It's gone unnoticed to some degree - there's been a LOT of horrific quarterback play this season in the NFL. Teams like the Raiders and the Giants are down to their third stringers, so it's shielded some shoddy play by otherwise highly-touted guys - like Stroud. 

His best fantasy performance was week 3 when he was QB7, throwing for 345 yards and 2 TDs. He's been a big fat disappointment so far, plain and simple, currently 3.75 points below his xFPPG of 18.2. More throws under pressure (107 - most in the league) leading to more interceptions and Nico Collins missing 4 weeks is a formula that's resulted in a nasty sophomore slump. 

4. It's time. 

I'll split this into two segments: 

First, how damn good is this guy? He's having the time of his life playing for the Eagles, finally thriving in a normal environment. 255 yards on Sunday night, a new career-high and Eagles single-game record.

Second, how dumb are the Giants? The same week the Giants bench Daniel Jones then release him, Saquon Barkley did this. I don't care, you can justify it any way you want and I know the case for NOT paying running backs, but to commit those funds to Daniel Jones makes it gag-worthy if you're a Giants fan watching Saquon do this. 

77.0 fantasy points over the last two weeks has him as the new RB1, now ahead of Derrick Henry.

5. Bryce Young might not be as bad as we were made to believe.

While CJ Stroud works through some things in year 2, Bryce Young may be back from the dead. He faced pressure and stood strong in the pocket, making high-level throws to give the Chiefs everything they could handle. He was 21/35 for 262 yards and 1 TD, but the film is encouraging.  

How is this man a literal superhero but looks like he could be a line cook at Fazoli's in an alternate reality? Patrick Mahomes just does incredible things every game to put his team in a position to win, I don't know any other way to put it. It's rarely sexy and he doesn't look like he should be a shifty runner, but that 33-yard run was the game-winning play and he makes magic happen time and time again.

He's putting together a strong start to the back half of the season and is QB4 over the last 4 weeks with fantasy performances of 27.94 and 31.46 in that stretch. I know the Chiefs are 10-1 and that's cool and all, but I'm happy to report that you may safely start Patrick Mahomes in fantasy since he's scoring fantasy points again. 

6. Bo Nix is the Offensive Rookie of the Year as of today.

Jayden Daniels has come back down to earth, Caleb Williams is showing signs of life now that Shane Waldron is gone, and Drake Maye is scrapping in Foxborough, but I think it's clear at this point: Bo Nix deserves Rookie of the Year honors. He's on a tear over his last 9 games that most veterans would be pleased with, much less a rookie.

After missing week 7, Courtland Sutton is a refreshing byproduct of his rookie quarterback's development. Sutton has been fantasy's WR2 averaging 17.2 FPPG in that span and sits at overall WR8 on the season in half-PPR leagues.  

Kurt Benkert did good work diving into his tape, further highlighting what we're seeing on a week-to-week basis. 

7. Baker was a nasty boy.

Not only did the Buccaneers mercilessly punish the Giants, but Baker couldn’t stop doing the Tommy DeVito celebration.

The Buccaneers backfield may not be able to sustain the pace they had on Sunday with all three running backs scoring touchdowns (including a rushing TD from Baker Mayfield), but they remain a fairly potent group. I can't say who exactly to trust between Bucky Irving and Rachaad White - they're both getting significant looks, but as of this week Bucky Irving is making a strong case for primary reps. He carried 12 times for 87 yards and a score and caught all 6 of his targets for 64 yards, a very Rachaad White-like performance. 

Baker is still QB5 with a slew of running backs at his disposal and Mike Evans back in the mix. Look for the Bucs to make a run as they have very winnable games upcoming again the Panthers (twice), the Cowboys, and the Raiders over the next 5 weeks.  

It’s officially a tank for the Giants, they’re throwing in the towel for this year, starting Tommy DeVito was a sham, and Malik Nabers might want out sooner rather than later. He's 21st in Average Separation Score, hasn't scored a touchdown since week 3, and seems to generally be having a bad time as a rookie without a quarterback to get him the ball. Once a fantasy-favorite to be inside the top-10, he's a product of the dysfunctional Giants franchise in which he exists.

8. Lamar Jackson is running away with it. 

Let us stop and recognize pure dominance. Lamar is having a career year and being borderline disrespectful in the process.

Look familiar? 

After Monday night, Lamar Jackson holds a 53.4 point lead as fantasy QB1. He's had two games under 20 fantasy points and has thrown 3 INTs all season. He's averaging 264.3 passing yards per game and he's on pace for a career-best passing year to go with ~800 yards rushing again. If things stay where they are, he should eclipse 4,000 yards passing for the first time in his career.  

The Ravens also have the RB2 in their arsenal, as if Lamar wasn't enough of a cheat code. Derrick Henry has only NOT scored in two games, including last week where he carried 24 times for 140 yards. He's averaging a career-high 6 yards per carry this year and could be looking at a new personal best in rushing touchdowns.

This throw and the catch by Rashod Bateman was absolutely bonkers.

9. The Anthony Richardson party was put on hold for this week.

The Lions are bullies, we'll just leave it at that. He was just 11/28 for 172 yards passing and 10 carries for 61 yards rushing. It wasn't great, but it also wasn't as bad as it looked on the surface. Here's my friend Ian summarizing the kind of day it was for AR.

I still believe Richardson can be a top-10 guy the rest of the way with a top-5 ceiling and some fluffy matchups the rest of the way.

Instead of glazing the Lions running backs again, we're gonna try a new section called FUN WITH CHARTS! 

If you're a thin-slicer, I can summarize it for you. The guys in green are outperforming their expectations by however many points are in the circle. Green = good. Both Lions running backs are in the top-5 of FPOE, that's how good they've been. 

Saquon and Derrick Henry are RB1 and RB2, respectively, so it makes sense that Gibbs and Montgomery are in there as RB3 and RB9. Ungodly production from the ones they call "Sonic and Knuckles" and the Lions might just steamroll their way to a Super Bowl. 

10. The Seahawks with for the jugular on this one.

Kyler loves his Call of Duty and it was an ugly loss for the Cardinals, but this was just plain rude. 

11. Bet the Bengals. 

They're coming off a bye, everyone should be at full strength, and PING-PONG IS BACK.

12. Josh Jacobs broke a zillion tackles on Sunday.

The Packers walloped the 49ers (Brock Purdy deserves a raise) and Josh Jacobs is flying up the fantasy leaderboards. 

He carried 26 times for 106 yards and 3 touchdowns, breaking 15 tackles along the way. He's the first person to rush for 100 yards in the regular season against the 49ers defense since 2021. 

WEEK 13 WIN THE WAIVER WIRE sponsored by Olive Garden:

Thank you to our new sponsor, Olive Garden, for believing in us here at the Fantasy Football Boys Fantasy Football Department. 

"When you're here, you're family™"

  • Bryce Young - He showed me something about the Chiefs. I still believe. 
  • Jeremy McNichols - Austin Ekeler went to the hospital with a concussion and Brian Robinson Jr. tweaked his ankle something vicious, so McNichols is next man up for the 'Mandies.
  • Gus Edwards - Another "next man up" is Gus Edwards, the TD machine from 2023. JK Dobbins only sprained his knee, thankfully, but will miss time. 
  • Antonio Gibson - Just in case Rhamondre has another game like he did last week (13 yards on 8 carries) he's worth a stash. 
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikinhe - Touchdowns in 6 of the last 7 and the Titans offense actually looked decent against the Texans (I refuse to list Will Levis as a waiver option for next week but if you're in dire need he's most likely available, too). 
  • Xavier Legette - With a renewed lease on life, Bryce Young has played solid as of late. I know David Moore had a big week, but Legette still has the dog in him to be Young's WR1. 
  • Dontayvion Wicks - Romeo Doubs is most likely out with a concussion on a short week, Wicks should get some of those vacated targets.
  • Ameer Abdullah - It's the Raiders, so beware, but Zamir White and Alexander Mattison were both out last week and Abdullah has caught touchdowns in the last two. 
  • Jonnu Smith - Check to see if our big beautiful boy is still available, he's Tua's new favorite.
  • Noah Gray - Kelce is so 2022. It's 2024, Noah Gray is in. 

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